The much-anticipated Union Budget 2026–27 is finally here, and all eyes are on Dalal Street as well as the common taxpayer.
📌 Important Market Update: Indian stock markets will remain open on Sunday, 1st February 2026, for a special Budget trading session with normal market hours from 9:15 AM to 3:30 PM.
This year’s Budget carries added significance as Finance Minister Mrs. Nirmala Sitharaman is set to present her 8th consecutive Union Budget, equalling the record held by Mr. Pranab Mukherjee. While Morarji Desai still holds the all-time record of presenting 10 budgets (non-consecutive), the real question remains:
💡 What can the common man and investors on Dalal Street realistically expect from Union Budget 2026–27?
🎯 Budget 2026–27: From Recovery to Transformation
As India moves beyond post-pandemic recovery, the government’s focus has clearly shifted toward long-term structural transformation. The overarching vision continues to be “Viksit Bharat” (Developed India), supported by:
- Simplification of the tax framework
- Strengthening domestic manufacturing under Make in India
- Adoption of advanced technologies like AI, automation & digital infrastructure
🔑 Key Expectations from Union Budget 2026–27
1️⃣ Direct Tax & Personal Finance 💰
After the introduction of the Income-tax Bill 2025, expectations are tilted more toward simplification rather than aggressive tax cuts.
Key Expectations:
- Standard Deduction: Likely increase from ₹75,000 to ₹1,00,000 to cushion inflation impact for salaried individuals.
- Housing Relief: Possible enhancement of home loan interest deduction beyond ₹2 lakh, and extension of this benefit to the New Tax Regime to revive affordable housing demand.
- Capital Gains Rationalization:
- Uniform holding periods across asset classes
- Bringing physical gold at par with Gold ETFs
- Increase in LTCG exemption limit to ₹2 lakh
- Surcharge Rationalization: Proposal to raise surcharge threshold from ₹50 lakh to ₹75 lakh under the New Tax Regime.
2️⃣ Indirect Tax & GST 2.0 🧾
The government is expected to focus on ease of doing business and addressing long-standing structural challenges.
Key Focus Areas:
- Customs Duty Rationalization: Reduction in tariff slabs from 8 to 4, minimizing classification disputes.
- Inverted Duty Structure: GST refunds for input services and capital goods taxed higher than finished products.
- Green Energy Push: Continued duty exemptions for EV components, solar modules, and green hydrogen projects 🌱⚡
3️⃣ Fiscal Strategy & Macroeconomic Outlook 📉📈
- Fiscal Deficit Target: Expected between 4.1% – 4.4% of GDP. While consolidation continues, growth support may take priority.
- Capex Boost: Public capital expenditure may rise 12–14%, focusing on:
- Railways modernization 🚆
- High-capacity corridors
- Multi-modal logistics
- MSME Support:
- Dedicated risk guarantee fund
- Easier credit access for small & medium enterprises
🌍 Global Trade & Macro Developments
At the start of the week, a major development emerged:
🇮🇳🤝🇪🇺 India plans to slash import tariffs on European cars from 110% to 40%, marking the biggest market opening yet, as India and the EU move closer to a Free Trade Agreement, possibly as early as January 27, 2026.
While this brings optimism, markets remain cautious due to two key overhangs:
⚠️ Key Market Overhangs
- Muted Q3FY26 earnings season for India Inc.
- Persistent FII selling:
- FIIs have already sold ₹36,591 crore worth of equities in January 2026 (MTD)
Positive Global Cues:
- Sentiment support from President Donald Trump backing off Greenland-related tariff threats
- Markets pricing in ~2 US Fed rate cuts in 2026, aiding global risk appetite
🧾 Q3FY26 Corporate Earnings – Week Ahead
📅 Tuesday, Jan 27: CG Power, Asian Paints, Tata Consumer, Vodafone Idea, Marico
📅 Wednesday, Jan 28: TVS Motors, TI, Larsen & Toubro, Maruti, M&M Financial, GRSE, BEL
📅 Thursday, Jan 29: Tata Motors, Swiggy, REC, Paytm, ITC, Adani Power, Canara Bank, Dabur, Colpal, CONCOR, Deepak Fertiliser
📅 Friday, Jan 30: SAIL, Nestle, Jindal Steel, NALCO, LIC Housing Finance, Bajaj Auto, Bank of Baroda, Cholamandalam Finance, Glenmark Pharma, Exide Industries
📌 Also Note: Monthly F&O expiry on Tuesday, Jan 27
📉 Market Outlook: Volatility Ahead!
🚨 Fasten your seatbelts — volatility will dominate the week ahead.
🔢 Nifty Options Data
- Expected Range: 25,000 – 26,500
- Major Resistance: 26,000
- Major Support: 24,000 – 24,500
- PCR: 0.59 (Bearish Bias)
📊 Nifty Levels
- CMP: 25,049
- Support: 24,722 / 24,411
- Resistance: 25,489 / 25,780
- 200-DMA: 25,143
- Bias: Negative
🏦 Bank Nifty Levels
- CMP: 58,473
- Support: 56,900 / 55,200
- Resistance: 60,000 / 61,700
- 200-DMA: 56,610
- Bias: Negative
📌 Preferred Trade for the Week
Nifty Strategy:
- Action: Sell at CMP (25,049)
- Targets: 24,722 / 24,456
- Aggressive Target: 24,100
- Stop Loss: 25,565
🏭 Sectoral View
- Bullish Sectors: None
- Bearish Sectors: Realty, Auto, Pharma, IT
🔍 Stocks in Focus
✅ Bullish View
Hindustan Zinc, National Aluminium, Vedanta, Ashok Leyland
❌ Bearish View
DLF, Axis Bank, IEX, Ambuja Cement, Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, Cipla, L&T, Godrej Properties, HDFC AMC, Indigo, Polycab, Dixon, Persistent Systems, Britannia (and others)
⭐ Stock of the Week: Persistent Systems (SELL)
- CMP: ₹6,155
- Targets: ₹5,900 / ₹5,491
- Stop Loss: ₹6,439
- Market Cap: ₹97,095 Cr
- P/E: 54
⚠️ Key Risks
- US macro slowdown
- Client concentration
- Premium valuation
- Currency volatility
- Wage inflation
Strategy: Sell on rise between 6,325–6,350, with a 1–3 month holding period.
⚠️ Disclaimer
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