After a sharp technology-led sell-off last Friday, Dalal Street begins the new week in a clear wait-and-watch mode. Markets are navigating a complex mix of post-Budget adjustments, sticky inflation signals, global tech weakness, and volatile foreign fund flows.
The tone remains cautious, with IT stocks bearing the brunt, while broader sentiment hinges squarely on FII behaviour in the days ahead.
🔍 What Spooked the Markets?
The Nifty IT index plunged nearly 5% last Friday, driven by growing global concerns around AI-led automation disruption, particularly following developments linked to Anthropic and advanced AI models.
Investors fear that accelerated automation could structurally disrupt traditional Indian IT service models, impacting long-term revenue visibility.
💸 FII Flow – The Deciding Factor
- Feb 11: FIIs turned net buyers for the first time in weeks
- Feb 13: Sharp reversal with a ₹7,395 crore sell-off in a single session
With US unemployment falling to 4.3%, expectations of a near-term Fed rate cut have weakened. Higher US Treasury yields are now attracting global capital, leading to outflows from emerging markets like India.
📌 If IT selling persists this week, it could confirm deeper FII concerns around AI disruption and global growth risks.
🌍 Key Global Trigger This Week
All eyes are now on US CPI inflation data, which could temporarily limit downside volatility. However, sustainability of any relief rally remains uncertain.
🧾 Domestic Earnings to Track (Q3 FY26)
While the earnings season is nearing completion, several mid-cap and sector-specific names will report results:
📅 Monday, Feb 16
- NBCC
- Fortis Healthcare
- IRB Infrastructure
- Indigo Paints
- KFin Technologies
📈 Nifty Derivatives & Range Outlook
Options data suggests a wide trading range for Nifty:
- Likely Range: 25,000 – 26,500
- Major Resistance: 26,000 (Max Call OI), followed by 26,500
- Strong Support: 25,500 & 25,000 (Max Put OI)
⚠️ Call writing at 25,600 & 25,500, while meaningful Put writing seen at 25,300 & 25,200.
🔮 Index Forecast & Technical Levels
📌 Nifty 50
- CMP: 25,471
- Support: 25,000 / 24,500
- Resistance: 25,807 / 26,373
- Range: 25,000 – 25,722
- 200 DMA: 25,293
- PCR: 0.94
- Bias: ❌ Negative
Preferred Trade: ➡️ Sell at CMP 🎯 Targets: 25,000 / 24,700 (Aggressive: 24,300) 🛑 Stop Loss: 25,808
🏦 Bank Nifty
- CMP: 60,187
- Support: 58,200 / 56,700
- Resistance: 61,700 / 63,000
- Range: 58,900 – 61,200
- 200 DMA: 57,105
- PCR: 0.87
- Bias: ⚖️ Neutral
🧭 Sector Outlook
🟢 Bullish Sectors
- Banking
- Pharma
🔴 Bearish Sectors
- IT
- Realty
- FMCG
- Auto
- Metals
📌 Stocks in Focus
✅ Bullish View
- Bajaj Finance
- Voltas
- SBI
- Canara Bank
❌ Bearish View
- Coforge
- Hindalco
- Reliance
- TCS
- IEX
- Swiggy
- Muthoot Finance
- DLF
- MCX
- CDSL
- LTIMindtree
- DMart
- Oberoi Realty
⭐ Stock of the Week: Cummins India
🔹 Investment Thesis (12–15 Months)
- CMP: ₹4,412
- Target: ₹5,100
- Stop Loss: ₹3,611
- 52W H/L: ₹4,615 / ₹2,595
- Market Cap: ₹1.22 lakh crore
Cummins India is a core industrial & power solutions player, well-positioned to benefit from India–US trade reset, Make-in-India thrust, and infra-led growth.
🚀 Why Cummins India Stands Out
✔ Strong presence in engines, gensets, power systems & components ✔ Pan-India service network with global export capabilities ✔ Beneficiary of tariff reset to 18% under India–US trade framework ✔ Potential boost from engineering exports & clean energy collaboration
⚠️ Key Risks
- Delay in tariff implementation
- Global macro volatility
- Export demand fluctuations
📍 Bottom Line: Cummins India remains a high-quality structural play, with near-term volatility offering accumulation opportunities for long-term investors.
⚠️ Important Disclaimer
This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
- Markets are subject to risk, including capital loss.
- Past performance is not indicative of future results.
- Investors should consult a registered financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 Trade responsibly. Manage risk. Stay informed.