Weekly Market Outlook | Global Triggers | Sector Strategy
Dalal Street is heading into Monday, February 23, 2026, with strong optimism after a landmark ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court overturned former President Donald Trump’s controversial tariff framework. The verdict has dramatically altered the global trade landscape — but Trump’s swift counter-measures and persistent U.S. inflation concerns suggest that the rally may not be entirely smooth. ⚠️
⚖️ US Supreme Court Verdict: A Major Global Trigger
In a 6–3 ruling on Friday (Feb 20), the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” and “Reciprocal Tariffs”, declaring them invalid under the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act).
📌 Why this matters for India:
- The decision removes a massive trade uncertainty overhang
- Export-heavy Indian sectors get instant relief
- Global risk sentiment improves sharply
🚀 GIFT Nifty Signals a Gap-Up Opening
The immediate reaction has been decisively positive.
- GIFT Nifty surged over 320 points (~1.25%)
- Trading near 25,886 over the weekend
📊 Market Signal:
Dalal Street is likely to open with a strong gap-up, reflecting relief from tariff uncertainty that had weighed on Indian exporters for months.
🌍 Big Win for Indian Exporters
The removal of the 18% “reciprocal tariff” burden is a structural positive. Key beneficiary sectors include:
💊 Pharma & Healthcare
- Generic drug exporters and patented drug makers
- Earlier facing duties as high as 100%
- Margin visibility improves immediately
💻 IT Services
- No direct tariffs earlier, but sentiment boost is significant
- Reduced “America First” policy risk supports large IT names
🧵 Textiles & Gems
- Export-heavy companies (50–70% US revenue exposure)
- Competitiveness improves sharply overnight
🔩 Metals & Auto
- Steel and aluminium exporters benefit from removal of emergency levies
- Note: Section 232 industry-specific tariffs may still apply
⚠️ Trump’s Counter-Move: The Spoiler?
While the court ruling is bullish, Trump’s weekend response adds complexity:
🧾 The 15% Counter-Tariff
- Trump signed a 15% global tariff using Section 122 of the Trade Act (1974)
- Claims it is “legally tested”
⏳ 150-Day Window
- This tariff is a temporary stopgap
- Valid for 150 days unless extended by Congress
💰 The Refund Wildcard
- Over $160 billion in tariffs were illegally collected
- If Indian exporters (e.g., auto & metal companies) receive refunds, it could mean a one-time balance-sheet windfall
📌 Investor Focus:
Refund clarity could become a powerful upside trigger in select stocks.
🔥 The Big Headwind: US Inflation & Fed Uncertainty
Despite tariff relief, last week’s Core PCE inflation data (Feb 20) remains a major concern.
📉 The Policy Dilemma
- Inflation: 3.0% (sticky & elevated)
- GDP Growth: 1.4% (slowing)
The Federal Reserve faces a tough choice:
- Hold rates high → risk recession
- Cut rates early → risk inflation resurgence
🧠 Likely Outcome:
The Fed is expected to stay in “wait-and-see” mode, delaying clear policy signals.
🧭 Market View: Gap-Up, Then Resistance?
🔎 Bottom Line:
- Gap-up opening likely on tariff relief
- Upside may be capped by inflation fears and Trump’s rapid policy shifts
📊 Derivatives & Options Insight
- Expected Nifty Range: 25,000 – 26,500
- Max Call OI: 27,000 → Major resistance
- Max Put OI: 25,000 → Strong base
- Put Writing: 25,600 & 25,700
- Call Writing: 25,900 & 26,000
📌 Interpretation:
Market structure supports a positive bias, but with heavy resistance near 26,000–27,000.
📈 Price Forecast
🔹 NIFTY
- CMP: 25,571
- Support: 25,324 / 24,800
- Resistance: 25,807 / 26,373
- Range: 25,430 – 26,100
- 200 DMA: 25,324
- PCR: 0.87
- Bias: Positive ✅
🔹 BANK NIFTY
- CMP: 61,172
- Support: 59,500 / 57,600
- Resistance: 62,500 / 63,800
- Range: 59,700 – 62,000
- 200 DMA: 57,263
- PCR: 0.99
- Bias: Positive ✅
🎯 Preferred Trade for the Week (Educational)
NIFTY
- Buy at CMP: 25,571
- Targets: 26,000 / 26,150
- Aggressive Target: 26,350
- Stop Loss: 25,500
🏭 Sector Outlook
🟢 Bullish Sectors
- Banks
- Pharma
- IT
- Metals
🔴 Bearish Sectors
- Realty
- FMCG
📌 Stocks in Focus
📈 Bullish View
ASHOKLEY • BEL • BHEL • BAJFINANCE • APOLLOHOSP
AUBANK • SBIN • BANKBARODA • LUPIN • TATASTEEL
📉 Bearish View
CDSL • CONCOR • NYKAA • KAYNES
⭐ Stock of the Week: Schaeffler India
📊 Key Details
- CMP: ₹3,889
- Target: ₹4,751
- Stop Loss: ₹3,389
- 52W H/L: ₹4,393 / ₹2,851
- Market Cap: ₹60,785 Cr
🏭 Business Overview
Schaeffler India is a leading manufacturer of high-precision bearings, automotive systems, and industrial components, with a strong presence across automotive, infrastructure, railways, and industrial machinery.
Brands include FAG, INA, and LuK, with manufacturing facilities across Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Tamil Nadu.
🚀 Why the Stock Looks Attractive
✅ Diversified product portfolio
✅ Strong localisation & R&D focus
✅ Robust aftermarket network
✅ Export integration with global supply chains
📈 Growth Snapshot
- Q2 FY26 Revenue: ₹2,463 Cr
- YoY Growth: +14.9%
- QoQ Growth: +2.8%
⚠️ Key Risks
- Auto cyclicality
- EV transition impact
- Raw material price volatility
📊 Technical Outlook
- Stock showing major consolidation breakout
- 200 DMA: 3,969
- Strength confirmed above 4,400
🎯 Preferred Strategy
- Buy at CMP & dips near 3,425–3,450
- Targets: 4,100 / 4,405
- Aggressive Target: 4,951
- Stop below 3,375
- Holding Period: 12–15 months
🧠 Final Takeaway
Tariff relief creates a strong opening tailwind, but inflation uncertainty and global politics may keep the market range-bound.
Selective stock picking and disciplined risk management remain key. 🔑
⚠️ Disclaimer
This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Stock market investments are subject to market risks. Investors should consult their financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions.