Oil, War & Rates: All Eyes on the Middle East and the Fed
The Israel-Iran conflict remains a key market-moving theme as fears mount over potential escalation across the Middle East. Since the region supplies nearly one-third of global oil, any disruption, especially via the Strait of Hormuz, could spike oil prices beyond $100, triggering ripple effects across global markets.
At Riddhi Siddhi Share Brokers, we foresee the following key impacts on the Indian market:
- Rising Oil = Rising Worries: India, being the 2nd largest oil importer, may see inflated import bills, hurting OMCs, autos, airlines.
- Rupee Under Pressure: Higher trade deficit could weaken INR.
- Bond Yields Up: Inflation risks may derail RBI’s recent rate-cut cycle.
- FII Outflows: Risk-off sentiment could prompt foreign selling, hurting Nifty short-term.
Bottom-line: CPI inflation could rise sharply. If RBI turns hawkish again, previous policy relief may get undone.
Nifty Outlook by Riddhi Siddhi Share Brokers:
- Nifty bulls struggle at 25222 resistance. Next big support is 23935.
- Volatility expected ahead of the FOMC decision (June 18). The Fed is likely to hold rates but markets will watch for signs of any pivot.
- Trump’s demand for a full point rate cut adds political pressure.
Technical Levels:
| Index | CMP | Support | Resistance | Range | PCR | BIAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty | 24719 | 24399 / 24083 | 25000 / 25501 | 24422 – 24899 | 0.98 | Negative |
| Bank Nifty | 55527 | 53900 / 52200 | 56771 / 58301 | 54000 – 56661 | 0.68 | Negative |
Trade Setup: Buy Nifty between 24422–24444 with targets at 25001 / 25300. Stop at 24211.
Sectors to Watch:
- Bullish: IT, Pharma
- Bearish: Banks, Auto, Media, Metals, FMCG
Stocks in Focus:
Bullish: BEL, DLF, SBICARD, SOLARINDS, MC
Bearish: HDFCBANK, SBIN, ITC, CHOLAFIN, L&T, ADANIENT, ADANIGREEN, COLPAL, BAJFINANCE, MAZDOCK, ADANIPORTS, BAJAJ AUTO, ULTRACEMCO, DALBHARAT, SHREECEM
Fundamental Pick of the Week: Alivus Life Sciences
CMP: ₹1014
Target: ₹1500
Horizon: 12–15 Months
Market Cap: ₹12,437 Cr
Why Buy:
- High-margin API-focused pharma player with global reach.
- Q4FY25 results: Revenue up 21.1% YoY, EBITDA up 44.2% YoY.
- Net-debt free, strong cash flows.
- Global regulatory approvals and major client base.
Preferred Strategy: Buy at CMP and on dips near ₹950–980. Targets ₹1121 / ₹1335 / ₹1500. Stop-loss: ₹783.
Disclaimer:
Riddhi Siddhi Share Brokers is an NSE & BSE registered Authorised Person of a leading broker and does not provide investment advisory services. Views above are for educational purposes. Investors must consult certified financial advisors and do their own due diligence before investing.