Seven weeks. Seven consecutive weekly declines.
The Nifty 50 closed Friday at 23,140.50, completing its longest continuous weekly losing streak since 2020.
But Friday also brought something the bulls desperately needed — a recovery from lower levels.
That leaves Dalal Street entering the new week with one number dominating the conversation:
23,000.
Can Nifty defend this crucial zone and finally break its seven-week losing streak?
Or will continued FII selling, elevated crude oil, a weak rupee and high US Treasury yields push the market below it?
The September 28–October 2 week is particularly interesting because it is also a holiday-shortened week. Indian stock markets will remain closed on Friday, October 2, for Gandhi Jayanti.
September ends. October begins. Month-end and quarter-end positioning could add volatility. Important global economic data is due. And the RBI’s October monetary policy meeting is getting closer.
Here is the Riddhi Siddhi Share Brokers Week Ahead.
THE WEEK THAT WAS
Indian equities remained under pressure during the week ended September 25.
Nifty moved between approximately 23,021 and 23,489 during the week before finally closing at 23,140.50.
Friday’s recovery helped the index move away from its weekly low, but it was not enough to prevent another negative weekly close.
That made it seven consecutive losing weeks for Nifty.
The broader concerns remain familiar:
- Persistent FII selling
- Elevated crude oil prices
- Rupee weakness
- US Treasury yields above 5%
- Weakness in financial stocks
- Cautious global risk appetite
Domestic institutional buying continues to provide an important counterbalance, but so far it has not been enough to establish a sustained market reversal.
In our previous Week Ahead, we entered the week asking whether Nifty could protect the 23,000 zone amid crude oil, tariff and global-market risks.
One week later, that battle has become even more important.
KEY TRIGGERS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD
1. NIFTY 23,000 — THE BIGGEST NUMBER THIS WEEK
Sometimes markets become complicated.
Sometimes one level simplifies everything.
This week, that level could be 23,000.
Nifty closed Friday at 23,140.50 after trading close to 23,000 during the week.
The 23,000–22,900 area now becomes the first important support zone to monitor.
If this region continues to attract buying, Nifty could attempt another recovery towards the 23,300–23,500 area.
But a decisive breakdown below 23,000, followed by sustained trading below 22,900, could increase downside pressure.
For Riddhi Siddhi Share Brokers, the first question this week is therefore not whether Nifty can immediately return to 24,000.
It is much simpler:
Can Nifty protect 23,000?
2. FII SELLING VS DII BUYING
The FII-DII tug-of-war remains one of the most important underlying stories of the Indian market.
Foreign institutional investors have continued selling Indian equities, while domestic institutions have repeatedly stepped in as buyers.
This divergence matters.
Persistent FII selling can place pressure on index heavyweights, the rupee and overall market sentiment.
At the same time, strong domestic flows can prevent foreign selling from translating into an equally sharp fall in benchmark indices.
Watch this equation closely during the week.
If FII selling begins to moderate while domestic buying continues, Nifty could finally get some breathing room.
If foreign selling accelerates again, the 23,000 zone could come under renewed pressure.
3. CRUDE OIL + RUPEE + US BOND YIELDS
Do not watch these three variables separately.
For India, they are interconnected.
India imports a substantial portion of its crude-oil requirement. Higher crude can therefore increase pressure on the import bill, inflation expectations and the rupee.
At the same time, elevated US Treasury yields can make dollar assets relatively more attractive and influence foreign capital flows towards emerging markets.
The chain is important:
Higher Crude → Import & Inflation Pressure → Rupee Sensitivity
Higher US Yields → Stronger Attraction of Dollar Assets → FII Pressure
FII Selling + Import Demand → Additional Pressure on INR
Riddhi Siddhi Share Brokers recently explained this relationship in detail in US Bond Yields Hit 5%: Why Rising US Treasury Yields Matter for Nifty & Indian Stocks.
That relationship becomes even more relevant now.
Any meaningful cooling in crude oil or US Treasury yields could provide relief to Indian equities.
A simultaneous rise in both would keep the macro environment challenging.
4. SEPTEMBER ENDS, OCTOBER BEGINS
This week marks the transition from September into October.
Month-end and quarter-end positioning can influence institutional flows and create unusual intraday movements.
Traders should therefore be careful about interpreting every sharp move as the beginning of a new trend.
Portfolio rebalancing and institutional position adjustments can temporarily increase volatility.
The quality and sustainability of a move matter more than a single green or red candle.
5. GLOBAL ECONOMIC DATA
Global cues remain important.
Markets will watch incoming US inflation, employment and manufacturing-related indicators for clues about the strength of the US economy and the future direction of interest rates.
Why does US economic data matter to someone trading Nifty?
Because the chain can eventually reach India:
US Data → Federal Reserve Expectations → US Treasury Yields → Dollar → Global Capital Flows → FII Activity → Indian Markets
That is why Riddhi Siddhi Share Brokers continues to watch the US bond market closely.
6. RBI MPC IS GETTING CLOSER
The Reserve Bank of India’s next Monetary Policy Committee meeting is scheduled for October 5–7.
The policy decision therefore does not fall within this week’s September 28–October 2 trading window.
But markets often begin positioning before an event.
Banks, NBFCs, real estate and other interest-rate-sensitive sectors could increasingly respond to changing expectations around inflation, liquidity and the future direction of interest rates.
There is an important distinction:
This week — RBI expectations.
Next week — RBI decision.
Market expectations should never be confused with an announced RBI policy action.
RIDDHI SIDDHI VIEW | WHAT BULLS NEED
After seven consecutive losing weeks, merely producing one positive session will not be enough to establish a trend reversal.
For the market structure to improve, Riddhi Siddhi Share Brokers would watch for a combination of signals:
1. Nifty holds the 23,000–22,900 zone
2. Nifty reclaims 23,300–23,500
3. FII selling begins to moderate
4. Bank Nifty starts participating in the recovery
5. Market breadth improves beyond a handful of heavyweight stocks
6. Crude oil and US Treasury yields stop adding fresh pressure
The more of these signals appear together, the stronger the recovery structure becomes.
Until then, volatility remains the more sensible base assumption.
RIDDHI SIDDHI GYAN MANTRA | DON’T PREDICT THE EIGHTH WEEK
Seven consecutive losing weeks can create two opposite reactions.
One investor says:
“The market has fallen for seven weeks. It has to bounce now.”
Another says:
“The market has fallen for seven weeks. Something must be terribly wrong. Better stay away.”
Both are trying to predict the market from the streak itself.
That can be dangerous.
A market does not have to rise simply because it has fallen for seven weeks.
And it does not have to continue falling simply because the trend has been weak.
Price first. Prediction later.
Watch whether support holds.
Watch whether resistance breaks.
Watch whether participation broadens.
Watch whether institutional flows change.
Let the market provide evidence before forming a conclusion.
That is the Riddhi Siddhi Gyan Mantra for this week.
RIDDHI SIDDHI NIFTY OUTLOOK | SEPTEMBER 28–OCTOBER 2, 2026
Nifty closed at 23,140.50 on Friday.
The index now sits very close to its immediate support area.
NIFTY SUPPORT
Immediate Support: 23,000
Major Support Zone: 22,900–22,800
NIFTY RESISTANCE
Immediate Resistance: 23,300
Major Resistance Zone: 23,400–23,500
RIDDHI SIDDHI VIEW
As long as Nifty remains above the 23,000–22,900 zone, attempts at a technical recovery remain possible.
However, the index needs to reclaim approximately 23,300–23,500 before the short-term structure starts looking meaningfully better.
A sustained breakdown below 22,900 would weaken the setup and could expose lower support zones.
The key word is sustained.
Intraday spikes above resistance or below support are less important than whether the index can hold those levels.
RIDDHI SIDDHI BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty remains crucial because financial stocks carry significant weight in the broader market.
A durable Nifty recovery becomes much easier if banking stocks participate.
BANK NIFTY SUPPORT
Immediate Support: 55,300
Major Support: 55,000
BANK NIFTY RESISTANCE
Immediate Resistance: 56,000–56,200
Higher Resistance: 56,600–56,700
RIDDHI SIDDHI VIEW
Bank Nifty needs to stabilise above support and begin reclaiming resistance for the broader market recovery to gain credibility.
If Nifty rises while Bank Nifty continues struggling, rallies could remain vulnerable.
Participation from financial heavyweights will therefore be one of our key confirmations this week.
RIDDHI SIDDHI PREFERRED TRADING VIEW FOR THE WEEK
This is not a week where traders need to predict every move.
It is a week where levels and risk management matter more than excitement.
With Nifty sitting close to 23,000 after seven losing weeks, both possibilities remain open:
A support-driven recovery.
Or another breakdown.
The preferred approach is therefore to respect confirmed price action rather than chase large intraday moves.
Volatility can create opportunities.
It can also punish overconfidence.
Keep position sizing disciplined.
Protect capital.
And remember:
Missing a trade costs nothing. Being trapped in the wrong trade can.
RIDDHI SIDDHI SECTOR OUTLOOK
BANKS & FINANCIALS
Bank Nifty remains one of the most important confirmation indicators for the broader market.
Watch institutional flows, bond yields and developing RBI expectations.
IT
Global risk sentiment, US economic data and currency movements could continue influencing the sector.
A stabilisation in global technology stocks could provide support.
PHARMA & HEALTHCARE
Defensive characteristics could keep the sector interesting during periods of broader market volatility.
Relative strength versus Nifty should be monitored.
OIL & ENERGY
Crude remains the dominant variable.
Sharp movements in international oil prices can quickly change sentiment across the energy space.
AUTO & REALTY
Both remain sensitive to domestic interest-rate expectations and overall consumer sentiment.
The approaching RBI policy meeting could gradually bring rate-sensitive sectors back into focus.
CAPITAL GOODS & MANUFACTURING
Domestic capex, industrial activity and order flows remain important longer-term drivers.
Watch whether selective strength continues even if the headline indices remain volatile.
RIDDHI SIDDHI STOCK OF THE WEEK | HBL ENGINEERING
Our Stock of the Week watchlist for September 28–October 2 is:
HBL ENGINEERING
HBL Engineering has shown relative strength despite weakness in the broader market.
The stock ended Friday around ₹806 after gaining approximately 4% during the session.
What makes HBL Engineering interesting for the coming week is not simply Friday’s price increase.
The more important question is whether the stock can sustain its recent momentum while the broader market remains under pressure.
WHAT RIDDHI SIDDHI SHARE BROKERS WILL WATCH
Price: Can the stock sustain above its recent breakout region?
Volume: Is upward movement accompanied by healthy participation?
Relative Strength: Can HBL Engineering continue outperforming the broader market?
Market Context: Does momentum survive if Nifty again tests 23,000?
HBL Engineering therefore enters the Riddhi Siddhi Share Brokers Stock of the Week watchlist.
This is a tracking idea for educational purposes and not a buy/sell recommendation.
PRIMARY MARKET & UNLISTED MARKET WATCH
The weakness in listed equities does not mean activity elsewhere in India’s capital markets stops.
But volatile markets make one principle particularly important:
Company quality and entry valuation are two different questions.
That applies equally to listed stocks, IPOs and unlisted shares.
Investors following India’s pre-IPO market can read VaultStreet Advisors’ analysis on what happens to India’s unlisted share market after the NSE IPO.
The common lesson across listed and unlisted markets remains straightforward:
Never allow the popularity of a company to replace valuation discipline.
FOUR-DAY TRADING WEEK
Indian stock markets will remain closed on Friday, October 2, 2026, for Gandhi Jayanti.
That gives traders only four domestic trading sessions:
Monday, September 28
Tuesday, September 29
Wednesday, September 30
Thursday, October 1
Friday, October 2 — MARKET CLOSED
But fewer trading sessions do not necessarily mean less volatility.
Month-end and quarter-end positioning, the beginning of October, global data, crude oil, US yields, the rupee and FII flows give the market plenty to digest.
RIDDHI SIDDHI WEEK AHEAD | THE BOTTOM LINE
Seven consecutive losing weeks.
Nifty at 23,140.
And 23,000 sitting immediately below.
That makes the setup for September 28–October 2 unusually clear.
For Riddhi Siddhi Share Brokers, four things matter most:
NIFTY 23,000
Can this crucial support zone survive another test?
FII FLOWS
Does persistent foreign selling finally moderate?
CRUDE OIL & RUPEE
Do India’s external macro pressures ease or intensify?
US TREASURY YIELDS
Can yields cool enough to provide relief to global risk assets and emerging-market flows?
If Nifty protects 23,000–22,900 and subsequently reclaims 23,300–23,500, the possibility of ending the seven-week losing streak improves.
If 23,000 breaks decisively while FII selling, crude and US yields remain elevated, downside risks remain.
But after seven consecutive negative weeks, the biggest mistake may be deciding beforehand what the eighth week “must” do.
Let the market tell us.
Watch the levels.
Watch the flows.
Watch the macro signals.
And protect capital.
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